Judgment and Decision Making

Judgment and Decision Making

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  • Human Judgment and Decision Making
  • Professor Robin Dawes

Contents

Articles

(from the Fall 2007 syllabus)

MODULE 1

  • Background Reading: Chapters 1 and 2, Hastie, R. and Dawes, R. (2001), Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. California: Sage Publications.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Science, 185, 1124-1131.
  • Simon, H.A. (1985). Human nature in politics: The dialogue of psychology with political science. American Political Science Review, 79, 293-304.
  • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1991). A cognitive theory of juror decision making: The story model. Cardozo Law Review, 13, 519-557.
  • Tversky, A., & Shafir, E. (1992). The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 3, 305-309.
  • CLARIFICATION: Dawes Memo
  • CLARIFICATION: Lambdin, C. & Burdsal, C. (2006). The disjunction effect reexamined: Relevant methodological issues and the fallacy of unspecified percentage comparisons. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 103 (2007) 268-276.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1995). Conflict resolution: A cognitive perspective. In K. Arrow, R.H. Mnookin, L. Ross, A. Tversky, & R. Wilson (Eds.), Barriers to Conflict Resolution, New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
  • Arkes, H.R., & Ayton, P. (1999). The sunk cost and Concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 591-600.

MODULE 2

  • Background reading: Chapters 3 and 4, Hastie and Dawes (2001)
  • Einhorn, H.J., & Hogarth, R.M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: The illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85, 395-416.
  • Combs, B., & Slovic, P. (1979). Newspaper coverage of causes of death. Journalism Quarterly, 56, 837-849.
  • McCauley, C. (1991). Selection of National Science Foundation fellows: A case study of psychologists failing to apply what they know about decision making. American Psychologist, 46, 1287-1291.
  • Tversky, A., & Koehler, D.J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547-567.
  • Grove, W.M., & Meehl, P.E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293-323.
  • Mulford, M., & Dawes, R.M. (1999). Subadditivity in memory for personal events. Psychological Science, 10, 47-51.

MODULE 3

  • Background reading: Chapters 5, 6, 7, Hastie and Dawes (2001)
  • Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299.
  • Ross, L., Amabile, T.M., & Steinmetz, J.L. (1977). Social roles, social controls, and biases in the social perception process. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 485-494.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 293-315.
  • Shafir, E. (1993). Choosing versus rejecting: Why some options are both better and worse than others. Memory and Cognition, 21, 546-556.
  • Hastie, R., Schkade, D.A., & Payne, J.W. (1999). Juror judgments in civil cases. Effects of plaintiff’s requests and plaintiff’s identity on punitive damage awards. Law and Human Behavior, 23, 445-470.

MODULE 4

  • Background reading: Chapters 8 and 9, Hastie and Dawes (2001)
  • Furby, L.R. (1973). Interpreting regression toward the mean in developmental research. Developmental Psychology, 8, 172-179.
  • Langer, E. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311-328.
  • Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., and Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295-314.
  • Bar-Hillel, M. (1990). Back to base rates. In Hogarth, R.M. (Ed.) Insights in Decision Making: A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 200-216.
  • Wells, G.L. (1992). Naked statistical evidence of liability: Is subjective probability enough? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, (5), 739-752.
  • Dawes, R.M., Mirels, H.L., Gold, E., & Donahue, E. (1993). Equating inverse probabilities in implicit personality judgments. Psychological Science, 4, 396-400.

MODULE 5

  • Background reading: Chapters 10 and 11, Hastie and Dawes (2001)
  • Tversky, A. (1972). Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. Psychological Review, 79, 281-299.
  • Coombs, C.H., & Avrunin, G.S. (1977). Single-peaked functions and the theory of preference. Psychological Review, 84, 26-230.
  • Tversky, A., Slovic, P., & Kahneman, D. (1990). The causes of preference reversals. American Economic Review, 80, No. 1, 201-211.
  • Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B., Schreiber, C.M., & Redelmeier, D. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science, 4, 401-405.
  • Thaler, R.H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206.

MODULE 6

  • Background reading: Chapters 13 and 14, Hastie and Dawes (2001)
  • Landau, M. (1984). Human evolution as narrative. American Scientist, 72, 262-268.
  • Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
  • McNeil, B.J., Pauker, S.G., Saks, H.C., Jr., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies. New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 216-221.
  • Einhorn, H.J. (1986). Accepting error to make less error. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 387-395.
  • Dawes, R.M. (1993). The prediction of the future versus an understanding of the past: A basic asymmetry. American Journal of Psychology, 106, 1-24.
  • Kahneman, D., & Lovello, D. (1998). Timid choices and bold forecasts. Management Science, 38, 12-31.

MODULE 7

  • Zajonc, R.B. (1980). Feeling and thinking: Preferences need no inferences. American Psychologist, 35, 151-175.
  • Chen, M. and Bargh, J.A. (1999). Consequences of automatic evaluations: Immediate behavioral predispositions to approach or avoid the stimulus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 214-224.
  • Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C.K.., and Welch, N. (2001). Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin. vol. 127, no. 2, 267-286.
  • Lerner, J.S., Gonzalez, R.M., Small, D.A., and Fischhoff, B. (2003). Effects of fear and anger on perceived risks of terrorism: A national field experiment. Psychological Science, 14, 144-150.
  • Hsee, C.R. and Rottenstreich, Y. (2004). Music, pandas, and muggers: On the affective psychology of value. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 23-30.
  • Haidt, J., and Graham, J. (2007). When morality opposes justice: Conservatives have moral intuitions that liberals may not recognize. Social Justice Research, vol. 20, no. 1, 98-116.

MODULE 8

  • Background reading: Dawes (2001). The past and future of social dilemma research (handout)
  • Hardin, G.R. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science, 162, 1243-1248. Also, the “criticisms of the commons theory” section of Hardin, G. (1991). In Andelson, R.V. (Ed.), The Tragedy of the Unmanaged Commons: Population and the Disguises of Providence. Savage, MD: Barns and Noble, 177-183.
  • Messick, D.M., & Sentis, K. (1983). Fairness, preference, and fairness bias. In Messick, D.M. & Cook, K.S. (Eds.), Equity Theory: Psychological and Sociological Perspectives. New York: Praeger.
  • Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J.L., & Thaler, R.H. (1986). Fairness as a constraint on profit seeking: Entitlements in the market. The American Economic Review, 76, No. 4, 728-741.
  • Dawes. R.M., & Thaler, R.H. (1988). Anomalies: Cooperation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2, 187-197.
  • Dawes, R.M. & Orbell, J.M. (1995). The benefit of optional play in anonymous one-shot prisoner’s dilemma games. In K. Arrow, R. Mnookin, L. Ross, A. Tversky, & R. Wilson (Eds.), Barriers to Conflict Resolution. New York: Norton & Co. Publishers, 62-85.
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